ESPN rankings are scrutinized by so many eyeballs. Being a ranker over there must be a frustrating position to handle. I imagine you would feel handcuffed by the decision of where to put each and every player. Using your gut instincts, in combination with the numbers, must be frowned upon. Sticking with the old diluted household names seems to be the favored tactic, rather than embracing the less familiar ones. The rankings list that results has to turn out on the ultra conservative side.
Every year brings on a changing of the guard to some extent. There’s alway new faces entering the scene, but, for whatever reason, they are less welcome near the top of the lists of the big sites. This brings on a big discrepancy between ESPN’s rankings and our own, and makes for an interesting comparison. Here are some examples of this “unfriendly” attitude toward the newbies, along with a few big names that we consider to be underrated for 2015:
New Faces Going Places
1. Jose Altuve (Caveball Rank: 9 ESPN Rank: 19) – There’s no Napoleon Complex with this always-grinning diminutive speedster, and he can hit. He’s the only player, other than Ichiro, to have 225 hits in one season over the last 14 years. This alone should put him in the first round. Add 56 steals, an .830 OPS and George Springer to the mix, and I’m thinking we might have him too low.
2. Josh Donaldson (Caveball Rank: 17 ESPN Rank: 31) – In 158 GP last year the 29 yr. old had 93 R, 29 HR and 98 RBI. If these elite numbers are not enough to convince ESPN he is worthy of the 2nd round, then maybe his 2015 numbers on the offensive powerhouse Blue Jay team will aid in their hindsight.
3. Stephen Strasburg (Caveball Rank: 19 ESPN Rank: 30) – Pre All-Star his line included a 3.46 ERA/.261 BAA/1.22 WHIP. Post All-Star he had a 2.70 ERA/.222 BAA/0.98 WHIP. Strasburg continued to get better with each month after the break, and finished September with a stellar 1.13 ERA/.194 BAA/0.75 WHIP. The 26 yr. old has found another gear.
4. J.D. Martinez (Caveball Rank: 28 ESPN Rank: 162) – Maybe we were thinking J.D. stands for Josh Donaldson. Or maybe we’ve tuned into something called prorating. If you prorate his 23 HR and 76 RBI in 123 GP over 162 games, then you get Josh Donaldson type numbers: a nice even 30 HR and 100 RBI. It’s a big sample size folks. The 27 yr. old is a late blossomer in his prime. Great thing is you don’t have to take him until his ADP approaches. (see: When ADP Matters)
5. Joey Votto (Caveball Rank: 29 ESPN Rank: 91) – Love how much he’s dropped. A healthy Votto will remind everyone that he’s still elite. (see: Comebacks: Bats and Showdown: Fielder vs Votto)
6. Kole Calhoun (Caveball Rank: 37 ESPN Rank: 67) – What is the most coveted and envied spot in all of baseball? The spot before Mike Trout steps to the plate. Calhoun owns this spot, and he owns it for a few very good reasons: (1) His minor league OPS was .948. (2) He gets on base – scored 90 runs in 127 games (3) He’s got good pop – 17 HR, and decent speed – capable of 20 bags a year. One more thing: 2015 is his 27 yr old season.
7. Chris Davis (Caveball Rank: 39 ESPN Rank: 76) – Here’s what we wrote in Mining and Pining for the Home Run: “Okay, so the “drug” for which he was suspended is now accepted by the league, yet he still has one game left on his suspension. So, he will miss opening day. Davis hit the stratosphere with 53 HRs in 2013, and then came back down to earth with 27 HR last year. Keep in mind he did only play 127 games. So let’s split the difference. Projected HRs: 40″ Power is in high demand, and you might be able to snag him in the 6th or 7th round this year.
8. Matt Harvey (Caveball Rank: 45 ESPN Rank: 82) – When will Harvey dethrone Kershaw as the best pitcher in baseball? Maybe not this year, but it won’t be too long. Remember his his stats from 2013: 2.27 ERA/.209 BAA/ 0.93 WHIP, and he allowed 135 hits over 178 IP, with 191 K. Yes, the Mets may coddle him a little this year after Tommy John surgery, but the timing of his recovery is ideal. (see: Special Exemption at the bottom of our Tommy John article)
9. Christian Yelich (Caveball Rank: 57 ESPN Rank: 77) – 23 yr. old oozes upside, especially now that he’s hitting in the 2-spot. Yelich avoided the sophomore jinx last year, hitting .284 from the lead-off spot, with an impressive 94 runs and 21 steals in 144 games. With Dee Gordon as the table-setter, Yelich should enjoy an uptick from his 54 RBI, as well. If Kole Calhoun has the most envied hitting spot in baseball (see above), then Yelich’s spot, in front of the fearsome Giancarlo Stanton, must be a close second.
10. Adam Eaton (Caveball Rank: 87 ESPN Rank: 238) – This is the year that it all comes together for the 26 yr.old speedster. If Eaton can manage 150 games, it’s no problem picturing 100 R and 30 SB, especially with the newly acquired help obtained over the offseason in Melky Cabrera and Adam Laroche. Eaton could have easily been used in the ADP article, featuring J.D. Martinez, as it seems that Caveball is the only site that sees his value. Eaton’s ADP of 229 is not far off ESPN’s ranking. This makes Eaton one of the steals of the year, as you can still snag him in the later rounds.
On the contrary, the big sites tend to stick very closely to the all the names that have been making headlines for the previous 3, 4 or even 9 years. ESPN does have a few 2nd and 3rd year players on this list, but they picked the wrong ones. They picked the players who have become better-known for their excellence in 1 or 2 categories, or for the awards they won last year.
Here are ten players overhyped and overrated by ESPN:
Big Names/Less Game
1. Edwin Encarnacion (ESPN Rank: 7 Caveball Rank: 14) – 31 yr. old has averaged 37 HR over last 3 yrs., but loses third base eligibility in 2015. He missed 34 games last season and is out with back inflammation already. 14th overall is still pretty damn high.
2. Troy Tulowitzki (ESPN Rank: 14 Caveball Rank: 42) – The last time the 30 yr. old played in more than 150 games was in 2009. Need something more telling? In the last three seasons he has played an average of 88 games.
3. Ian Desmond (ESPN Rank: 27 Caveball Rank: 56) – Why are all these shortstops ranked so high at ESPN? I might understand if it’s the scarcity issue. Otherwise, I’m scratching my scalp. Desmond is the only consistently healthy one of the group, so let’s compare his numbers with a second baseman’s instead, another Ian, Kinsler. In 161 GP Kinsler had 100 R, 92 RBI and 15 SB. (ESPN Rank: 53 Caveball Rank: 27). In 154 GP Desmond had 73 R, 91 RBI and 24 SB. Desmond is good, but don’t pick him before the 5th round.
4. Hanley Ramirez (ESPN Rank: 29 Caveball Rank: 61) – Has averaged just 116 GP over the last 4 years, including 86 in 2013 and 128 last year. The BoSox have a logjam in the outfield. Any little excuse to keep Hanley out of action will prompt it.
5. Bryce Harper (ESPN Rank: 36 Caveball Rank: 110) – His best season remains his first, in 2012. Since then he has missed 44 games in 2013, and 62 last season. His recklessness and lack of maturity, both on and off the field, is too volatile to rank him inside the top 100.
6. Jose Reyes (ESPN Rank: 44 Caveball Rank: 79) – Has averaged 132 GP over the last 3 years. That’s not terrible if he was still the elite player he once was, but he’s not. He still had 30 SB last year, but just 9 HRs, and his worst OPS in 10 years, a pedestrian .726.
7. Billy Hamilton (ESPN Rank: 60 Caveball Rank: 98) – His drop-off in the second half was dramatic: pre All-Star he had a .743 OPS; post All-Star it was .511. Equally striking was his .200 BA in the second half. His speed is eye-popping without question, but that’s all you get here.
8. Sonny Gray (ESPN Rank: 66 Caveball Rank:89) – Pitched 219 innings in his sophomore season. This is unheard of these days, as some teams coddle their prospects into their 4th year. Even if there’s no injuries, there is a chance of fatigue setting in. Besides, Billy Beane seems to have traded away most of his run support from last year. Seriously, how many teammates does he even recognize in Spring Training?
9. Gerrit Cole (ESPN Rank: 78 Caveball Rank: 140) – Durability has become such a huge issue with young pitchers. Cole is no exception. Two trips to the DL for shoulder issues last year are enough of a red flag to let him slide.
10. Jacob DeGrom (ESPN Rank: 95 Caveball Rank: 136) – Here’s what we said in the Sophomore’s Lumps article: Sophomore slumps seem to prey particularly on ROYs, especially pitchers. Degrom’s minor league stats were nothing like his great debut in the majors. His award serves only to increase his ranking and decrease his value.