This season is full of intriguing two-player “Showdowns” that beg comparison and invite debate. In each Showdown we pit two players from the same position against each other, scrutinize their age, injuries (if applicable), and statistics, with only one coming out on top.
Our first “Showdown” includes two veteran first baseman who disappointed many Fantasy owners last year after going down with season-ending injuries before the All-Star break. Let our first showdown begin: Fielder vs Votto.
Although it may not be immediately evident, Prince Fielder and Joey Votto have a lot in common. They are both veteran first basemen who hit from the left side. Once Fielder has a birthday in early May, they will both be 31 yrs. old. And they both are candidates for a bounce-back season after suffering season-ending injuries in the first half of 2014.
The similarities between the two elite players make for an intriguing comparison. Yet they do have their differences, as well. Let’s unearth some of those differences to discover who might have a better season in 2015.
Prince Fielder played his last game on May 16. In his first brief stint (42 games) with the Rangers he was not so impressive, especially when you consider his own teammate, Adrian Beltre, predicted he would win the MVP award before the season began. Fielder finished with 3 HR/16 RBI/.247 Avg. over 42 GP. His .720 OPS was way below his career .910.
Up until last season Fielder was known for his ironman-like durability. He missed a total of 13 games over the previous 8 years, and only 1 game over the previous 5 years. These days that’s almost unimaginable. Last May he went down with a neck injury and had subsequent cervical fusion surgery. It sounds like he is fully recovered, and has already played in the Rangers’ first game of Spring Training.
For Fielder, the 2015 season is no longer about overcoming injury. It seems he is well done with that issue. No, for the 275 lb. first baseman, it’s more about whether he can regain the form he once had, because he wasn’t even close in the games that led up to his injury last year – just ask all the snakebitten fantasy owners out there.
There is the question of whether his neck had something to do with the drop in his numbers last year. Maybe so, but his power stats have declined in each of the past 4 years.
- 2011 – 38 HR/.415 SLG
- 2012 – 30 HR/.412 SLG
- 2013 – 25 HR/.362 SLG
Big players do not often fare so well after their 30th birthday. Of course, there are some exceptions, like David Ortiz. Big Papi is listed at 230 lb.
Ryan Howard, who is 250 lb., had his last 30-HR season in 2010 in his 31 yr. old season.
270-pound Carlos Lee peaked at the age of 29, when he had 37 HR. Then his totals went steadily downhill each year: 32,28,26,24,18 and finally 9, at the age of 35.
Prince’s own father, Cecil, had 39 HRs at the age of 33, but Fielder’s listed weight tops his father’s by 35 pounds, and he’s 4 inches shorter.
So, I’m not saying he’s going to have a miserable year by any stretch, especially in the bandbox at Arlington. I am saying that he’s more than likely on a decline.
Fielder turns 31 in early May.
Joey Votto played his last game on July 5, but he had been on the DL for the last half of May and the first 9 days in June. Like Fielder, he had been in the midst of his worst season to date. Votto finished with 6 HR/23 RBI/.255 Avg. over 62 GP. His .799 OPS was way below his career .950. (More on this later)
Unlike Fielder, it would seem Votto’s injury, a strained quad, is lingering. At least, it appears this way right now, as Cincy management have agreed to delay his debut in Spring Training. Or, maybe they could be just coddling him, as he has nothing left to prove in the Cactus League. If you recall, Votto was okayed to return last September by team doctors. The Reds are probably saving his bat for the games that matter. (Update: Votto just played his first game over the weekend)
Let’s get back to his year to year stats. Yes, his power numbers have declined somewhat in recent years. Even in a healthy 2013, when he played 161 games, he had 24 HR and 73 RBI. I had him on a few of my teams that year, but he didn’t hurt Fantasy teams as much as you might think. In fact, in terms of On Base Percentage and Slugging, he only helped owners. Votto finished the season with a stellar .435 OBP and an excellent .491 SLG, for a .926 OPS.
I watched many Reds games that year, because I had Choo and Votto on a few teams. Here’s what I noticed: Votto became one of the most selective players I have ever watched. This pickiness at the plate, in combination with the fact that most pitchers did not want to throw him any meatballs in the first place, gave him 135 walks on the year.
This is nothing new. Votto remains one of the most feared hitters in the game, and his OBP and OPS throughout his career is as much evidence as you need. From 2009-2013 Votto finished 4th, 3rd, 10th, 3rd and 8th in OPS in both leagues. In the same time frame he finished 5th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in OBP. From 2010 to 2013 he was first in OBP in the N.L. That’s four straight years at the top. Does anyone remember how good he has been? Votto can still rake with the best of them, but he just will not swing at anything outside the strike zone.
So, why has Votto dropped off so dramatically on experts lists? Well, I think it’s a matter of “what have you done for me lately” thinking. When I come across this perspective (with proven elite hitters and pitchers alike), and the player’s ranking has fallen disproportionately, I pounce.
The Decision
In conclusion, both Fielder and Votto have more than likely started a decline, but in Fielder’s case it is, and will be, more pronounced. Votto is the better candidate to bounce back, provided he stays healthy.
Winner by a 55 lb advantage: Votto