This season is full of intriguing two-player “Showdowns” that beg comparison and invite debate. In each Showdown we pit two players from the same position against each other, scrutinize their age, injuries (if applicable), and statistics, with only one coming out on top.
The fourth event on our Showdown supercard features two young light heavyweight shortstops who are known more for what they can do than what they have done. For each of these highly touted youngsters it seems to be more a matter of when they’ll break out, than if. Now entering the ring, it’s Baez vs Bogaerts.
This matchup seems inevitable, as these two burgeoning talents have much in common: they were born exactly two months apart in 1992 – Bogaerts on the 1st of October and Baez on the 1st of December; they both hail from a Caribbean island – go figure; they each play in the confines of the two oldest and storied ballparks remaining in all of baseball; they each have newfound potent support throughout their respective lineups (two of the best in the MLB); they both have eligibility at two infield positions; they were each ranked inside the top ten prospects in the Minors; and they have each experienced tough growing pains during their first gig in the Majors.
Javier Baez, a native of Puerto Rico, was ranked the 9th top prospect by MLB in 2013. He has serious pop for a shortstop, as he hit 73 2B, 12 3B, and 76 HR in 319 Minor League games, which drove his slugging percentage up to .545 over his 4 years in the Minors. While his batting average (.278) was okay, his slugging boosted his OPS to an .881.
The 22 yr. old has decent speed, as well. He added 62 SB to his Minor League resume′ over those 319 games, which means he may be capable of 25-30 in a full year with the Cubs.
Baez could stand to refine his plate discipline a little. His first stint in “The Bigs” displayed a lack of contact and a high strikeout rate. He finished 2014 with a dismal .169 batting average and almost two strikeouts per game. Keep in mind that 52 games, about a third of a season, is a fairly small sample size.
On the positive side, 9 of his 36 hits last year sailed over the fences. So, this kid hits for power – not your typical shortstop. In fact, he is slated as a second baseman this year, with Starlin Castro at shortstop. Chi-town may be big enough for them both, after all.
Xander Bogaerts, a native of Aruba, was ranked the 6th top prospect by MLB in 2013. Bogaerts has a little less pop than Baez, but he makes up for it with better contact. He had 81 2B, 16 3B, and 54 HR over 378 Minor League games. His career Minor League OPS of .862, was very close to his opponent’s (.881), but was achieved with a balance of OBP (.373) and SLG (.489).
Despite his athleticism, including a silky smooth swing, Bogaerts has average speed at best. He managed only 17 swipes in the Minors.
Unlike Baez, Bogaerts now has a full year behind him, but it wasn’t pretty. As you expect with many young rookies, his roller coaster year was all over the map:
[table “9” not found /]He finished the year with 12 HR and 46 RBI over 144 games, with a .240 AVG, and a .660 OPS. What was particularly worrisome was his horrendous performance with runners in scoring position, as seen in the table above.
The good news is that he did finish the year on a positive note. He belted 4 HR, with 16 RBI in September, which gives us a hint of better things to come.
The Decision
A rare few 21 yr. olds come out of the Minors with guns ablazing. Mike Trout is the exception. More often than not, the young talents take time to transition and cultivate.
Ultimately, Baez will probably prove to be the more valuable (Fantasy) player of the two, as he will contribute to five categories. His speed gives him the edge over Bogaerts.
However, by virtue of the fact that Bogaerts does have a full season in his rearview mirror, he should prove to be the bigger asset in the upcoming 2015 season.
Winner, by learning how to take those early blows: Xander Bogaerts
Trivial Trivia: You can spell “Red Sox” with the letters from Xander Bogaerts’ name. How ’bout them apples?