Is Pedroia looking over his shoulder at Terry Francona’s latest protege′?This season is full of intriguing two-player “Showdowns” that beg comparison and invite debate. In each Showdown we pit two players from the same position against each other, scrutinize their age, injuries (if applicable), and statistics, with only one coming out on top.
The second episode in our “Showdown” series features two second basemen who disappointed many Fantasy owners last year: Kipnis vs Pedroia.
The two second basemen have a fair amount in common: they both have a combination of pop and speed; they have each benefitted from the tutelage of “Tito” Francona; and they are both candidates for a bounce-back year after coming off their worst season in the majors.
Jason Kipnis signed a hefty contract before last season got underway, which he claims added to the pressure of performing. As a result, he may have tried too hard with each at bat. His fall from grace was fairly extreme, as his OPS dropped from .818 in 2013 to .640 last year. And just when you thought he might join the exclusive 20/30 club, after a (17/30) near miss in 2013, Kipnis ends up with 6 HR and 22 SB in a year he would rather forget.
Which factors can we attribute to his poor year? Primarily it was his inability to stay healthy. Kipnis went on the DL with a strained oblique at the start of May last year, and apparently dealt with this injury after he returned, and for the rest of the season. As well, he had a hamstring issue in September. In total, he missed 33 games last year and was not close to 100% for most of rest of them.
Given his career average OPS of .861 in the minors in the pitcher-friendly International League, one would have to assume that a bounce back is in the forecast this year. Coach Francona says he’s going to do it “with a vengeance”, and whatever Tito says must not be taken lightly. Besides, how much do you really have to lose when you can count on 30 SBs in the bank?
Kipnis turns 28 just before opening day.
Dustin Pedroia was a part of a team-wide hangover in the wake of the most unlikely of their recent World Series celebrations. Although the Fenway Faithful seemed more forgiving than usual, Pedroia still “issued IOUs” to anyone affected by his poor year.
The 31 yr. old has had a steadily declining OPS over the past 4 years, and was almost a full .100 below his career OPS (.810) in 2014, as he finished with a .712. His home run decline over the last 4 years parallels the OPS downslide, with 21, 15, 9 and 7 in 2014. The big question: is age a factor? Well, yes and no. There will be some natural decline from age 27 onward, but Pedroia seems like the type who will experience a much more gradual decline. He still looks like a 25 yr. old, until he takes off the helmet. No, the real problem last year came from a different source.
Like Kipnis, Pedroia had health issues that did affect him throughout the 2014 season – namely his wrist problems. He ended up missing 27 games. However, he had surgery performed on his wrist in early September, and has already claimed to have all of his power back this Spring. If the talent is still present, then the numbers will return, especially with the talented new crop of rookies and acquisitions surrounding him in the line-up.
The Decision
Is Pedroia looking over his shoulder at Terry Francona’s latest protege′? Well, maybe, but let’s remember that we are talking about the former Rookie of the Year and MVP.
This is a tough Showdown to call, as evidenced in our Comeback Bats post, where Pedroia and Kipnis finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively. What tips the scales in the veteran’s favor is the powerhouse lineup surrounding him.
Winner by Technicality: Pedroia