For those of you who have yet to draft your teams, Caveball offers up a revised version of the Top 100. We had originally scheduled our Top 250 for today, but then realized a few changes had to be made to the smaller list first.
We weren’t originally going to issue a Top 250, as we wanted the ultimate cheat-sheet, “Chartfelt Tiers”, to replace the whole concept of lists (Click here for the printable version of Chartfelt Tiers). However, by popular demand, we will publish a Top 250 on Thursday.
Just remember, we highly recommend to free yourselves from all lists come D-Day. Of course, we still have the Top 100 indicated on our “Chartfelt Tiers”, and we will have a completely updated version of the C.T. available on Thursday, as well.
There are surprisingly few changes to be made for a mid-March revision, and all changes come down to injuries:
- Chris Sale slides a handful of spots, as he’ll miss all of Spring Training (which has some significance) and one or two starts;
- Yu Darvish, is gone for the year
- Hunter Pence loses a few of rounds of value, as he will not return until May
- Jayson Werth gets bumped down a few spots as he is looking doubtful for Opening Day
- Victor Martinez slides a little too, due to his doubtful start date
- Jose Fernandez won’t appear until sometime in June, so he drops out of the Top 100. The Marlins are playing it cautiously, as it was initially being discussed as a potential May return.
- Kenley Jansen drops out of the Top 100, as he is out as late as mid-May
- Our new additions are James Shields at 98, Tyson Ross at 99, and Mookie Betts sneaks in at 100, as each player who followed Darvish, Jose Fernandez and Kenley Jansen slides up a spot.
All of the industry’s experts will point out the external factors which affect each player’s final projected stats for the year. Factors such as: home ballpark, teammates (fielding ability for pitchers, and offensive clout of the line-up for hitters), and even the divisional opposition. Caveball determined a statistical value for each of these external factors and combined it with each player’s individual ability. This final number will be his CPR, or Comprehensive Player Ranking.
This ranking is particularly important in assessing a player who has switched clubs, ballparks, leagues and/or divisions. And this off-season has been historical for the sheer number of acquisitions/trades that have transpired in the majors. (Look for Caveball’s upcoming articles which rank the most significant off-season moves in order of player rankings. There was so much movement that we divided the article into two parts: one for hitters, and the second for pitchers)
As Spring Training proceeds certain tweaks will be made due to injuries and recovery times, potential line-up or rotation changes, or other news which may affect a player’s performance in the new year. Here are Caveball’s mid-March rankings for Fantasy Baseball 2015 – top 100 players overall:
- Mike Trout (OF) – Baseball’s ambassador is just 23 yrs. old – can he be better?
- Paul Goldschmidt (1B) – 27 yr old is the most complete 1B in the game
- Clayton Kershaw (SP) – Only isssue is sacrificing a 1st round pick for an arm
- Miguel Cabrera (1B/3B) – 10 straight years of 100-plus RBI and he’s just 31
- Giancarlo Stanton (OF) - Monster season coming up for the 25 yr. old
- Andrew McCutchen (OF) - 5-category stud is all business and heart
- Jose Abreu (1B) – The mystery is over. ROY is real deal, and he’s in his prime
- Adam Jones (OF) - McCutchen without the eye and patience
- Jose Altuve (2B) – Only other player to have 225 hits in last 14 yrs: Ichiro
- Jose Bautista (1B/OF) – 34 yr. old avg’d 121 GP over last 3 yrs. – otherwise elite
- Carlos Gomez (OF) – Back to back elite mirror-image years dispels fluke theory
- Felix Hernandez (SP) – Learned how to win long ago, and now, so has his team
- Anthony Rendon (2B/3B) – 5-tool player quietly scored 111 runs and 83 RBI
- Edwin Encarnacion (1B) – 34 HR in just 128 games -prorate that
- Robinson Cano (2B) – Safeco/Mariners cut HR total in half – Cruz will help
- Josh Donaldson (3B) – Yet to peak 25 yr. old joins superior offence
- Anthony Rizzo (1B) – Upside up the yin yang – 32 HR and .913 OPS in 140 GP
- Stephen Strasburg (SP) – Found a new gear in 2nd half and kept improving
- Chris Sale (SP) – Dominating. Can his lanky frame stand the violent releases?
- Michael Brantley (OF) – Another late blossomer fills all categories
- Johnny Cueto (SP) – Had an incredible year amidst a tough one for the Reds
- Freddie Freeman (1B) – 25 yr. old still has upside, unlike his diluted line-up
- Corey Dickerson (OF) – Burst onto the scene ’14 – 100+ R & RBI in 2015
- Corey Kluber (SP) – Cy Young winners share initials with “Man of Steel”
- Ryan Braun (OF) – Will the real Mr. Thumb please come forward?
- Yasiel Puig (OF) – Only OF L.A. wouldn’t part with – prime years ahead
- Ian Kinsler (2B) – Shoo-in for 100-plus runs with even stronger line-up
- J. D. Martinez (OF) – Late-blooming 27 yr. old will continue to rake
- Joey Votto (1B) – On-base machine should have a bounce-back year
- Madison Bumgarner (SP) – Legendary playoff performance may overhype value
- Max Scherzer (SP) – Should dominate in the weaker-hitting N.L. East
- Justin Upton (OF) – Petco won’t help his cause, but new look line-up will
- Adrian Beltre (3B) – Had good numbers despite age (36) & injury-plagued team
- David Price (SP) – Old-school workhorse led MLB in IP (248) and Ks (271)
- Prince Fielder (1B) – Hype is over for new Rangers – big question marks remain
- Kole Calhoun (OF) – Breakout of the year: Look out for 30 HR/110 R
- Chris Davis (1B/3B) – Drug was cleared, head should be too – rare power
- Matt Kemp (OF) – Can overcome hitter’s bane at Petco in front of Upton
- Evan Longoria (3B) – Had decent numbers despite a team-wide 2014 slump
- Troy Tulowitzki (SS) – Perennial injuries takes Tulo out of the top 2 rounds
- Matt Holliday (OF) – Reliable 35 yr. old is aging gracefully – no surprises here
- Adam Wainwright (SP) – Mirror image (20-W) year with 2010, with dip in Ks
- Matt Harvey (SP) – This year is as cheap as he will come in the next 5
- Brian Dozier (2B) – Strong offensive 2nd half for Twins bodes well for 27 yr. old
- Jacoby Ellsbury (OF) – Unreliable speedster is always a high risk/reward pick
- Adrian Gonzalez (1B) – RBI machine keeps on ticking in loaded line-up
- Charlie Blackmon (OF) – Close to a 20/30 season (8 missed games)
- Albert Pujols (1B) – Hurts to watch him run now – still has 100 RBI potential
- George Springer (OF) – Lowest price you’ll get for him for the next 12 years
- Buster Posey (C) – 28 yr. old has 3 rings in 5 years, and a lot of confidence
- Jordan Zimmermann (SP) – Always reliable – allowed 29 BB in 32 starts
- Zach Greinke (SP) – The odd poor outing balanced out by win opportunities
- Carlos Gonzalez (OF) – Many elite OF in 2015 – not worth the agony of injury
- Ian Desmond (SS) – Most consistent and injury-free choice amongst the top 4
- Christian Yelich (OF) – Slides perfectly in 2-spot between Gordon & Stanton
- Masahiro Tanaka (SP) – Injury is only concern here. Watch closely in March
- John Lester (SP) – Transition to N.L. East should suit him quite well
- Hanley Ramirez (SS/OF) – Can Papi & Panda calm the talented malcontent?
- Yoenis Cespedes (OF) – Who hits 6th him or J.D.? Does it matter?
- Nelson Cruz (OF) – Warning: Safeco/Mariners cut Cano’s HR in half
- Dustin Pedroia (2B) – Former ROY and MVP earns new award: Comebacker
- Cole Hamels (SP) – Will it be the Padres. If so, he should thrive at Petco
- Julio Teheran (SP) – Handled a big workload with staff dropping like flies
- Todd Frazier (3B) – Could be overvalued this year – 20 SB not his norm
- Dee Gordon (2B) – Low OPS bodes poorly in pitching-heavy N.L. East
- Kyle Seager (3B) – 27 yr. old has missed 5 games in last 2 yrs.
- David Ortiz (1B) – Age will catch up some time for Papi – why take the risk?
- Jay Bruce (OF) – Should see more balls to it with a healthy Votto – 30 HR
- Hunter Pence (OF) – Crazy Legs is one of the toughest outs in the game
- Alex Cobb (SP) – New ace for a Rays team that could surprise. Very strong second half
- Craig Kimbrel (RP) – Still the best, but with very close contenders
- Starling Marte (OF) – 30 SB in 135 GP – tremendous second half
- Aroldis Chapman (RP) – Least likely RP to get hit by a hit (54 IP/21 H)
- Victor Martinez (1B) – 2014 was only year 36 yr. old had more than 25 HR
- Jayson Werth (OF) – Matt Holliday stats, with some history of injuries
- Jake Arrieta (SP) – No fluke – 78.1 IP and 57 H exactly in each half
- Jose Reyes (SS) – 31 yr. old may still have a 100 R /30 SB season in tank
- Nolan Arenado (3B) – Alpha wolf at Coors – gamma wolf elsewhere
- Chris Carter (1B) – Ryan Howard lookalike hits like he used to (40 HR)
- Josh Harrison (2B/3B/OF) – Late bloomers do exist given the chance
- Greg Holland (RP) – Almost a mirror image of Kimbrel’s 2014
- Alex Gordon (OF) – Quietly valuable and reliably healthy
- Jimmy Rollins (SS) – L.A.’s smog/line-up should breathe new life into veteran
- David Wright (3B) – Mets finally have a contender, but he looks worn down
- Adam Eaton (OF) – Prime pick of 2015 with some health risk attached – 30 SB
- Alex Wood (SP) – How hexed can the Braves be? He’s already had Tommy John
- Sonny Gray (SP) – Pitched better away than in the bay – less support this year
- Devin Mesoraco (C) – 3 more HR and 9 less RBI than Posey in 33 fewer GP
- Melky Cabrera (OF) – Will slot in nicely after Eaton (and before Abreu)
- Hisashi Iwakuma (SP) – Lack of Spring Training/late start hurt his numbers
- Jeff Samardzija (SP) – Back in Chi-Town, but with a contender this time
- Howie Kendrick (2B) – Smooth crosstown transition a great fit in Blue
- Brett Gardner (OF) – Does newfound power give him 20/20 potential?
- Matt Carpenter (3B) – Built his ceiling in 2013, now he’s working on the walls
- Billy Hamilton (OF) – Will be picked long before you should even consider him
- Garrett Richards (SP) – Knee injury (recovery) will snuff some of the hype
- Jonathan Lucroy (C) – Doubles machine misses few games (.837 OPS)
- James Shields (SP) – Glad we had the chance to slide him into the Top 100, since we made the list before his San Diego signing was announced. Petco seems to boost all pitchers stats, and now they have a lineup to support him.
- Tyson Ross (SP) – If he’s the same as last year, the new run support will make him that much better.
- Mookie Betts (OF) – Playing time is only issue – with his talent he should be fine, but it would be nice to see Boston loosen the logjam with a trade or two.